The NFL Underdog Story: There is “Bad Football” Being Played

In week 4 post game press conference Tom Brady famously said “I watch a lot of bad football. Poor quality of football. That’s what I see.”

After seven full weeks of this experiment, I can confirm that there is a lot of bad football being played this season. Ironically the worst football played was by none other Mr. Brady himself. The reeling Tampa Buccaneers traveled to Carolina who just traded their best player and start Houston XFL legend PJ Walker at quarterback. Tampa Bay was so heavily favored and expected to win, it was reported that BETMGM in Las Vegas took 5 total bets on the Panthers at +14. The end result was 21-3 Carolina Panthers +525 win.

Staying on theme with older QBs playing badly, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Packers fell short of a comeback and lost to the Washington Commander +160, 23-21. The New York Giants +140 continues to stay hot as they were able to stop a last second effort at the 1 yard line to down Jacksonville 23-17. They will face another of our favorite season underdogs next week when they take on the Seattle Seahawks +188, who are also coming off an “upset” of the San Diego chargers.

LAC @ KCLAC +170L$ (1.00)
IND @ JAXJAX +136W$ 1.36
MIA @ BALMIA +152W$ 1.52
NYJ @ CLENYJ +225W$ 2.25
TB @ NONO +125L$ (1.00)
NE @ PITPIT +125L$ (1.00)
CAR @ NYGNYG -105W$ 1.00
WSH @ DETDET -105W$ 1.00
SEA @ SFSEA +310L$ (1.00)
ATL @ LARATL +375L$ (1.00)
ARI @ LVARI +205W$ 2.05
HOU @ DENHOU +390L$ (1.00)
CIN @ DALDAL +275W$ 2.75
CHI @ GBCHI +375L$ (1.00)
TEN @ BUFTEN +375L$ (1.00)
MIN @ PHIMIN +130L$ (1.00)
Week 7 Results7-9$ 2.93

Going into Monday night we were in good shape, it was either going to be break even week, or if the hapless Bears somehow found a way to win in New England, we would turn in our 3rd week of +4 units of profit. Low and behold, more bad football ensued. The Patriots tuned the ball over 4 times, used two QBs and gave up 243 rushing yards to a Bears team who is not sure how to complete a pass. The Chicago Bears +315 rolled 33-14 much to delight of Vince Vaughn appearing on the ManningCast and myself.

Once again we turned in a profit of 4.28 units bringing us to a total profit of 18.71 units on the year. My only conclusion so far is that bad football is the only way to beat Vegas.

*Note: this is not a recommendation to play any of these games as actual bets, this is for research and entertainment purposes only.

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