As expected, week 3 brought us tighter lines as the minds in Las Vegas have more and more data to work with. This week we had only 4 teams with money lines greater than +200 compared to week 2 when four teams were getting greater than +350. As the lines get tighter, the experiment will need more wins in pick’em type games where the play is the short underdog.
Fortunately, this week, that is exactly what happened as 6 teams at essentially even money (+110 or less) were on the winning side. Thanks to this success and larger upsets by the Colts, Jaguars and upstart Dolphins, week 3 went 9-7 and returned us an incredible +5.19. Combined with our previous total of +5.93 we are now +11.12 in this young season.
| Game | Pick | Result | Return |
| PIT @ CLE | PIT +175 | L | $ (1.00) |
| BAL @ NE | NE +125 | L | $ (1.00) |
| KC @ IND | IND +190 | W | $ 1.90 |
| DET @ MIN | DET +230 | L | $ (1.00) |
| NO @ CAR | CAR +110 | W | $ 1.10 |
| HOU @ CHI | HOU +145 | L | $ (1.00) |
| PHI @ WAS | WAS +220 | L | $ (1.00) |
| BUF @ MIA | MIA +175 | W | $ 1.75 |
| CIN @ NYJ | NYJ +235 | L | $ (1.00) |
| LV @ TEN | TEN +110 | W | $ 1.10 |
| JAX @ LAC | JAX +225 | W | $ 2.25 |
| ATL @ SEA | ATL -102 | W | $ 1.00 |
| LAR @ ARI | ARI +150 | L | $ (1.00) |
| GB @ TB | GB +105 | W | $ 1.04 |
| SF @ DEN | DEN +105 | W | $ 1.05 |
| DAL @ NYG | DAL +100 | W | $ 1.00 |
| Week 3 Results | 9-7 | $ 5.19 |
The 6 aforementioned wins in the Pick’em category also happened to be some of the more brutal games of the week, and unfortunately 3 of them were nationally televised. In Carolina, the Panthers (+110) took advantage of two more 4th quarter interceptions by Jameis Winston to beat the Saints. The Tennessee Titans (+110) outlasted the second half comeback of the Las Vega Raiders to avoid starting 0-3. Cordarelle Patterson continued his career revival as a running back, piling up 141 yards and leading the Atlanta Falcons (-102) to a win over Seattle. In a game that featured two of the best to do it in Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, the Packers (+105) behind two Rodgers touchdown passers, were able to hold off the late comeback by Tom Brady and the Bucs.
This led us into the Sunday football game where the Broncos (+105) scored late to beat the 49ers 11-10; yes, you read that right. The only memorable highlight of this game was Jimmy Garoppolo doing his best impression of Dan Orlovosky and running out of the end-zone for a safety. Monday night brought us a game between NFC East rivals, and the New York football Giants looking to start 3-0. That didn’t happen. A big second half from back up Cooper Rush and CeeDee Lamb kept Cowboys (+100) perfect since losing Dak Prescott in a week 1 Loss.
Week 3 Recap
Buffalo Bills @ Miami (+175)
The game with the most hype coming into the week as the Bills looked invincible and Miami coming off the shocking comeback against the Ravens will most be remembered for “the butt punt“. Down 21-17, Buffalo had forced Miami to punt out of its own end-zone, Miami’s punter preceded to punt the football straight into his teammates rear end resulting in a safety for the Bills. Fortunately for Miami, the Bills were not able to get into field goal range as running back Isiah McKenzie could not get out of bounds to stop the clock or save the coaches box from offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey’s outburst. Unfortunately, this game also noticeably featured questionable concussion protocol as Tua Tagovailoa re-entered the game in the second have after being up off the field late in the second quarter.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (+190)
A back in forth game from the start, the Colts caught a break when replacement kicker for the injured Harrison Butker missed a 34 yard field keeping the game at 17-13 in favor of the Chiefs. Not wanting to give the ball back to dangerous Patrick Mahomes, the Colts took possession with 8:38 remaining and executed a perfect, albeit monotonous, clocking draining touchdown drive to go ahead 20-17, leaving 29 seconds on the game clock. A Mahomes interception sealed the upset and gave the Colts their first win of the season.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ LA Chargers (+225)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have now played 2 straight NFL football games without ever trailing. After shutting out the division favorite Colts 24-0 last week, the Jaguars took a 13-0 lead vs the LA Chargers and never looked back. The Chargers made it 16-10 early in the third quarter but the Jaguars then ripped off 22 unanswered points with new addition Christian Kirk scoring for the third straight week to win 38-10. Don’t look now but the Jaguars are 2-1, first in the AFC south. I will be looking for them to cash another large ticket as they face off against the undefeated Eagles next week.
Our win streak continues and we’re 3 for 3 in being profitable on betting underdogs.
*Note: this is not a recommendation to play any of these games as actual bets, this is for research and entertainment purposes only.