The NFL Underdog Story: J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!

After a profitable week 1, I was less optimistic heading into week 2 when the opening lines were released. Four teams (Atlanta, Seattle, Houston, Tennessee) opened greater than 3-1 dogs to this week and those numbers held on until Sunday kick. My initial reaction was Houston (+390) had the best chance to win outright and even though they led late into the game, Russell Wilson overcame a frustrating day and the Broncos prevailed 16-9. However, this was just a footnote in another wild NFL week and profitable week for the experiment.

GamePickResultReturn
LAC @ KCLAC +170L$(1.00)
IND @ JAXJAX +136W$1.36
MIA @ BALMIA +152W$1.52
NJY @ CLENYJ +225W$2.25
TB @ NONO +125L$(1.00)
NE @ PITPIT +125L$(1.00)
CAR @ NYGNYG -105W$1.00
WSH @ DETDET -105W$1.00
SEA @ SFSEA +310L$(1.00)
ATL @ LARATL +375L$(1.00)
ARI @ LVARI +205W$2.05
HOU @ DENHOU +390L$(1.00)
CIN @ DALDAL +275W$2.75
CHI @ GBCHI +375 L$(1.00)
TEN @ BUFTEN +375L$(1.00)
MIN @ PHIMIN +130L$(1.00)
Week 2 Results7-9$2.93

By the conclusion of the afternoon games, our darling dogs were 7-6 and sitting an incredible +5.93 units, guaranteeing at least a return of a profit of 2.93 units for the week. Unfortunately, the favorites would roll on in the remaining prime time games giving us final result of 7-9 and that profit of 2.93 units for the week. Through 2 weeks we now sit at 13-18-1 , with a combined total profit of 5.93 units.

Week 2 Recap

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Indy came into Jacksonville favored by 3 pts at kickoff, which allowed us to take Jacksonville at +135. This should have been a free space as Indy had not won in Jacksonville since 2015 with an average loss of 20.8 pts. The Jaguars behind the big game of new favorite target of Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, cruised to a 24 – 0 victory.

NY Jets @ Cleveland Browns 

This game made no sense, to bettors, viewers, even the fans. The Browns played with the lead or tied most of the game, in fact the Jets led for 25 seconds, the final 25 seconds. Nick Chubb scored his second touchdown of the day with 2:02 remaining, and Cade York missed what should have been a meaningless extra point. A lax in coverage led to a 66 yard Corey Davis touchdown, which the Jets followed up with a successful onside kick. The Jets offense, led by Joe Flacco, marched down the field and scored their second touchdown in two minutes to take the lead for the first time all day and steal the victory.

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens

This game looked like a blowout entering the 4th, with the Ravens behind the legs and arm of Lamar Jackson holding a 35-14 lead. That is when the Dolphins offense became what they envisioned after bringing in Tyreek Hill to pair with Jaylen Waddle. A quick touchdown drive made it 35-21, then Tyreek had his coming out party for Miami catching touchdowns of 48 and 60 yards on back to back drives to tie the game. The automatic Justin Tucker put the Ravens back ahead 38-35, but it was all for naught. The Dolphins, marched right right down the filed and Tua connected to Jaylen Waddle for the game winning touchdown with 19 seconds remaining.

Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants

These games will be grouped together as both Lions and Giants opened as favorites. Bettors did not buy this and by the time the lines closed both were slight underdogs allowing me to take advantage. The Lions all game by at least a touchdown for the win and the Giants were able to finally get a stop after trading pts with the Panthers all game.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys

Essentially written off by the sportsbooks after losing Dak Prescott for the near future, the talented Cowboys roster were able to frustrate Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense. An efficient performance by backup Cooper Rush put just enough pts on the board and set up the game winning field goal by Bret Maher as time expired.

Arizona Cardinas @ Las Vegas Raiders

After being smashed by the Kansas City Chiefs in week 1, it appeared to be more the same for Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals going down 20-0 at the half. The defense showed up and held the Raiders to 3 pts in the second half and Cardinals were able to force overtime thanks to the heroics of Kyler Murray on the two point conversion. In overtime a big hit caused a  fumble by Hunter Renfrow that was recovered by safety Byron Murphy and returned for a 59 yard touchdown. 

So far we’re 2 for 2 in being profitable on betting underdogs, let’s see if this can continue.


*Note: this is not a recommendation to play any of these games as actual bets, this is for research and entertainment purposes only.