It took until week 4, but we had our first losing week, going 6-10 overall and loss of 2.27 units. This was somewhat expected as Vegas is gathering more data on every team and sharps are reading these posts. Hey, I can dream right?
On the positive side, we’re still sitting at a positive of 8.93 units on the year, but week 4 was presented with a very narrow margin for error featuring only three games at north of +200 on the money line; and spoiler, none of them won. We even had a game that featured an “underdog” ML that was not available which had to be taken at the standard spread line +1 point at -110.
| Game | Pick | Result | Return |
| MIA @ CIN | MIA +170 | L | ($1.00) |
| MIN @ NO | NO +168 | L | ($1.00) |
| BUF @ BAL | BAL +145 | L | ($1.00) |
| WSH @ DAL | WSH +136 | L | ($1.00) |
| TEN @ IND | TEN +168 | W | $1.68 |
| CLE @ ATL | ATL +105 | W | $1.05 |
| NYJ @ PIT | NYJ +145 | W | $1.45 |
| JAX @ PHI | JAX +240 | L | ($1.00) |
| SEA @ DET | SEA +145 | W | $1.45 |
| CHI @ NYG | CHI +130 | L | ($1.00) |
| LAC @ HOU | HOU +200 | L | ($1.00) |
| ARI @ CAR | ARI +1 (-110) | W | $1.00 |
| NE @ GB | NE +365 | L | ($1.00) |
| DEN @ LV | DEN +120 | L | ($1.00) |
| KC @ TB | KC +110 | W | $1.10 |
| LAR @ SF | LAR +110 | L | ($1.00) |
| Week 4 Results | 6-10 | ($2.27) |
As you can see above we only had 6 total wins on the week with the Tennessee Titans +168 being our biggest winner. The Titans got back to what they do best, giving the ball to Derrick Henry, Henry ran for 122 yards and one touchdown to defeat the Colts who were unable to build on their upset of the Chiefs from last week.
Atlanta +105 was able to hold off the Cleveland Browns 23-20 but lost their leading rusher Cordarelle Patterson.
The New York Jets +145 welcomed back starting QB Zach Wilson and rallied late in the 4th quarter to beat the Steelers 24-20.
Seattle +145 out lasted the Detroit lions 48-45 in a game that had 1017 total combined yards of offense.
Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals were able to put away the Carolina Panthers who are figuring quickly why the Browns were happy to move on from Baker Mayfield.
Our last win of the day was a gift, a gift in the sense the odds-makers let us take Patrick Mahomes as a +110 dog vs the out sync Tom Brady and Tampa Bay Bucs. Mahomes does what he does and connected with Travis Kelce early and often as the result of this game was never really in doubt from the end of the first quarter.
This week was the first of several setbacks I anticipate but behind the back of weeks 1-3 we still are carry a return of 8.93 units heading into week 5.
*Note: this is not a recommendation to play any of these games as actual bets, this is for research and entertainment purposes only.